Human rights advocates, however, warn that the US is trading short-term gain for long-term pain if it doesn’t insist on a return to democracy in the Sahel. “Cosying up to Sahel juntas (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) is a blunder,” Jeffrey Smith of Vanguard Africa, which lobbies for the release of deposed Nigerien former president Mohamed Bazoum, wrote on X in response to the Trump team’s overtures. “Since the coups, violence has doubled and civilian deaths tripled. Three million have fled through migration, not to mention documented massacres. Emphasis must be on civilian rule.”

Jeffrey Smith, founder of pro-democracy organization Vanguard Africa, said “This is damage control 101. The military tie was too radioactive post-sanctions … Kagame loves using basketball as part of ‘Visit Rwanda’ to project a shiny, modern facade. When that facade cracks under U.S. sanctions for Congo crimes, it stings—particularly for a leader who craves international validation. He can swap teams all he wants; the world now sees the regime’s military fingerprints on everything, including sports.”

Jeffrey Smith, executive director of Vanguard Africa, joins us to examine the aftermath of Uganda’s elections and the future of politics in Uganda, and more broadly across East Africa and other parts of the continent where democracy is severely undermined.

“All the murkiness – what's true, what isn't – is by design”, says Jeffrey Smith, the founding director of Vanguard Africa. “The internet shutdown, for example, is intended to create uncertainty, cause confusion and anxiety. The human abuses that do happen, that are happening can now be dismissed by the regime.”

“The Museveni regime saw what happened, or rather, what didn’t happen in Tanzania. There were zero consequences for electoral theft, violence and mass killings. Museveni and the regime around him, propping him up certainly took note of this. They know they have free rein to commit abuses with impunity.”

African affairs expert Jeffrey Smith, of the pro-democracy organization, Vanguard Africa, told RFI this outcome was expected. "I suspect we'll see an overwhelming reported victory for Museveni and a concerted government crackdown thereafter.”

Concerns were now focused on what comes next for the country, he added – pointing to Uganda’s young population and warning of deeper instability. "Uganda's crisis is much bigger than Uganda, and that's why it's a crisis that demands urgent, authoritative action from both local and global actors," he said.

"Meta is directly enabling state censorship in Tanzania, a time during which the country is facing well warranted, unprecedented scrutiny over a violent election fallout, including the deaths of potentially thousands of people," says Jeffrey Smith, the founding director of the pro-democracy non-profit organisation Vanguard Africa .

Washington’s warning carries weight. Tanzania receives over $3bn in US assistance annually, positioning it among America’s largest aid recipients in Africa.

Jeffrey Smith, executive director of Vanguard Africa and a leading voice on US policy in the region, says the moment demands clarity. “The billions the US provides Tanzania every year comes with responsibility. Washington must make clear that support is contingent on genuine democratic reforms and respect for human rights. Anything less is complicity in the regime’s gross abuses.”

Vanguard Africa joins the Platform for African Democrats in expressing deep concern over Cameroon’s October 12 election that included widespread irregularities, violence, and government manipulation of the results. Despite multiple opposition petitions and civil society evidence showing significant flaws and voter suppression, the long-standing incumbent Paul Biya was declared the winner amid escalating unrest, arrests, and disinformation. The statement urges respect for the Cameroonian people's will, calls for democratic reforms, and appeals to the international community to oppose further repression and support truth and justice.

Activists such as Jeffrey Smith of Washington lobbying firm Vanguard Africa argue that democratic backsliding in Africa harms the US long-term by eroding support for elections and emboldening would-be putschists who falsely claim to “reset” the system.

“This is a critical moment for Africa’s democratic trajectory, and it underscores the urgent need for solidarity, as well as genuine reforms that protect political freedoms, ensure independent electoral bodies and hold leaders accountable to the genuine will of the people,” Smith tells The Africa Report. “That the US State Department has been woefully silent thus far is only going to further embolden Biya and other autocrats across the region.”