Not too long ago democracy scholars were extolling the virtues of liberation technology and describing how it would enable citizens to build solidarity, expose wrongdoing and generally expand the horizons of freedom. As recently as 2011, autocratic states around the globe appeared to be on the defensive. Protest movements were shaking longtime despots to their core. Social media platforms provided new capabilities that allowed citizens to organize in ways that were previously unimaginable. States that had not undergone a political transition in generations abruptly disintegrated in the face of mass demonstrations. Some experts speculated that the world was experiencing a “4th wave of democratization.”
Policymakers and the general public, however, underestimated the resilience of autocratic governments. The promise of information and communication technologies has been replaced by cynicism as states have expertly co-opted digital technologies to advance their own interests.
The result has been state-sponsored disinformation campaigns in the Philippines; social media-fueled violence against minority groups in India and Myanmar; cyber-attacks targeting human rights activists and journalists in Saudi Arabia; online censorship in Thailand; and AI-powered surveillance and “algorithms of repression” in Xinjiang, China.
To what extent do these trends apply to Africa? There is room for both optimism and pessimism.
On the positive side for Africa, social media communication remains vibrant and less damaged by disinformation, cyber-trolling, and political exploitation than in many other regions of the world, particularly when compared to South Asia and the Asia Pacific. As Sudan’s internet-fueled protest movement and Algeria’s youth-led demonstrations have showed, social media continues to be a powerful tool to connect activists and mobilize citizens against despotic regimes.
Nigeria’s recent elections provide another encouraging example of how tech platforms can empower democracies. A July 2019 report examining the impact of WhatsApp on the country’s electoral process found that the platform helped opposition groups — which were otherwise shut out from mainstream radio and TV outlets — level the political playing field. WhatsApp also facilitated the inclusion of new actors into the political arena, particularly tech-savvy youth, which enabled citizens to coordinate anti-corruption campaigns and facilitate election observation. (That being said, disinformation also roiled the platform – including a pernicious rumor that incumbent president Buhari had died while undergoing medical treatment outside of the country and had been replaced by a clone from Sudan).
On the flip side, Africa also faces troubling tech developments. China’s expanding role in providing surveillance technology to abusive governments is a good case in point. Recent reporting from the Wall Street Journal reveals that Huawei employees in Uganda and Zambia, for example, have assisted government officials in spying on political opponents, including “intercepting their encrypted communications and social media, and using cell data to track their whereabouts.” Huawei also encouraged Ugandan security officials to travel to Algeria so they could study Huawei’s “intelligent video surveillance system.” Uganda’s government subsequently signed a contract to acquire a similar facial recognition surveillance system to employ at home.
My own research shows that Chinese companies are exclusively, or primarily, supplying artificial intelligence surveillance technology to 11 different countries in Africa, including: Botswana, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. While these countries are not necessarily using such systems to facilitate illegal surveillance, it is hard to imagine that autocratic governments in places like Rwanda or Zimbabwe are not exploiting these systems in unlawful ways.
The rise in internet shutdowns on the continent is also alarming. NetBlocks Cost of Shutdown Tool reveals that the estimated cost of internet shutdowns in 2019 already exceeds $2.7 billion. Sudan has suffered the most damage; its recent month-long internet shutdown led to $1.6 billion in lost economic activity. As I have written in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, shutdowns are tools of weak or desperate governments. In short, Sudan’s military junta was willing to “sacrifice long-term economic stability for short-term gain” as part of a “last-ditch strategy to break the protesters’ momentum and buy time for the regime.”
Compared to other regions, Africa is an ICT laggard. 18 of the 20 countries with the least amount of internet access around the globe are located in Africa. Connectivity remains a major problem for most African publics. Indeed, less than one-quarter of Africa’s population regularly accesses the internet, the lowest of all measured regions. Economically, World Bank data shows that ICT accounts for just 0.7% of total goods exported from Africa (in comparison, ICT comprises 22.7% of exports from East Asia and the Pacific).
Perhaps this slow uptake of ICT in Africa presents an unexpected silver lining. The prevailing environment may in fact buy the continent more time to facilitate a smoother digital transition. Some experts posit, for example, that the sudden entry of platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter into South Asian and Southeast Asian markets led to the acceleration of political and ethnic divisions. By contrast, civil society stakeholders and democracy activists in Africa have slightly more breathing room to counter digitally repressive tactics and to implement critical digital literacy programs.
Overall, the digital story is still being written in Africa. While a re-blossoming of the liberation technology narrative is unlikely, it is also not inevitable that citizens will fall prey to growing digital authoritarianism efforts.
Steven Feldstein is a nonresident fellow in Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and the holder of the Frank and Bethine Church Chair of Public Affairs and an associate professor at Boise State University. Follow him on Twitter @SteveJFeldstein .
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanguard Africa or the Vanguard Africa Foundation.