“Jasusi, who is going to win the election?.” This is a question I have been asked a lot lately. “Jasusi” is a Swahili word for spy – the moniker I am stuck with because of my past as a former Intelligence and Security Service (TISS) officer in Tanzania. Since the day I was forced to quit – after my life was put in danger due for insisting on anti-corruption measures – I have emerged as perhaps the agency’s harshest critic. That has come at a steep price, with my name being at the top of government hit lists and one attempt on my life in 2013.
I am writing this article partly as a former TISS officer who had been actively involved in Tanzanian elections since the multiparty system was introduced in 1992. To be blunt: the situation in Tanzania over the last 5 years, under President John Magufuli, has moved from bad to worse. I was involved in the 1995, 2000 and 2005 elections as a TISS officer. And for the first time, I can go on record to categorically state that the much-feared intelligence agency was deeply involved in rigging those elections by employing sophisticated techniques that would honestly require a separate article to explain.
Unfortunately, it is impossible to prove how TISS is responsible for these electoral frauds. However, it is inconceivable to think they would not do it again in the coming election to be held on Wednesday. And it is for this reason that this article goes further than just predicting who might win between the ruling CCM’s candidate Magufuli, and Tundu Lissu, the main opposition candidate. What I seek to explain here is what needs to be done in the likely event that the election turns out to be neither free or fair.
Sources within Tanzania’s intelligence circles assert that this year’s election is like no other because it would be “run directly by TISS.” What this means, if true, is while the spy agency is a serial voter fraudster, its work has been made easier since it has been put in charge of the election, albeit illegally.
One needs to understand the symbiotic relationship between TISS and CCM, the country’s long-ruling party. Both being corrupt, they rely on each other to cover the other’s back. Like elsewhere in the world, intelligence agencies work in secrecy. However, in the case of TISS, the secrecy combined without proper oversight only helps the inherent corruption to flourish.
On the other hand, the ruling party – arguably one of the most corrupt in the world – heavily depends on TISS for its very survival. Until recently, the spy agency classified top CCM leaders and its influential members as exempt from investigations as it seeks to “keep the nation safe,” while opposition leaders and its members are by default “subject” (in other words: individuals to keep tabs on).
Now to the big question as to who is likely to win the election. Without hesitation, I can say that Tundu Lissu is the most likely winner. Apart from possible sympathy votes from Tanzanians who see him as a “living miracle,” after having survived a hail of bullets in a plot against his life in September 2017, Magufuli’s 5-year tenure has been possibly the worst in the country’s history. Never before have Tanzanians lived in such state of fear. They do not know when or where the infamous “watu wasiojulikana” (unknown assailants) are going to strike.
To Lissu’s credit, he has not run his campaign on a “revenge agenda,” even in spite of the fact that the Magufuli regime completely ignored the need to investigate the assassination attempt made against him. Some prominent ruling party leaders have also made Lissu’s near death experience an object of mockery. What is more, Magufuli has on several occasions threatened voters if they dare to vote for Lissu or other opposition candidates.
While Magufuli has been boasting of his infrastructure projects – such as reviving the national airline, building rail and power infrastructures, and saying he was putting in place a foundation for a strong economy – there has been no transparency in the tender procedures. What is more, a majority of Tanzanians do not see these projects as anywhere close to meeting their top priorities; indeed, most Tanzanians live in abject poverty.
If Wednesday’s election had any semblance of being free and fair, Tundu Lissu would win. Resoundingly. However, in light of the heavily unequal political playing field, I strongly doubt that Magufuli and his allies in the intelligence agencies will allow that to happen — to allow the will of the Tanzanian people to be duly respected. The shamelessly partisan National Election Committee (NEC), for one, will leave their mark.
In conclusion, while Tundu Lissu and his party hope for the best, that he might pull off the win, expect the worst should Magufuli steal this election. Tanzania’s political opposition, which has untied recently, as well as our citizens who are demanding change, should be prepared to exercise their rights and demand an end to these serial election frauds. The world should also be watching, and Tanzania’s development partners ready to stand up and be heard if Lissu and his colleagues are once again robbed. Tanzania deserves better.
“Mungu ibariki Tanzania” (God bless Tanzania).
Evarist Chahali is a former intelligence officer with the Tanzania Intelligence and Security Service. He currently lives in Scotland working as a consultant. He is also a prominent blogger, author and social media commentator. Follow him on Twitter: @chahali
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanguard Africa or the Vanguard Africa Foundation.